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陈文林参赞在挪威船级社《中国能源转型展望2050》报告发布暨研讨会上的讲话提纲(英文)

Trust and Action: Sharing the Opportunity of

China’s Energy Transition

(Speech by Mr. Chen Wenlin on April 30, 2024, NCCC & DNV)

Distinguished members of the NCCC Board of Directors, DNV OUTLOOK research team, ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon!

It is great to attend China's Energy Transition Outlook 2050. My thanks and congratulations go to NCCC and DNV! With more than 130 years of experience in China and its large expertise, the DNV research team has made a comprehensive analysis and prediction on China's energy transition and its impact on the world in the coming decades. The outlook offers spectacular insights based on calculations and evaluations and urges closer international cooperation from every nation. These are the most valuable ideas in today’s geopolitical situation. We need to work together to fight against climate change. Predicting the future is not easy, and to predict China's energy development is more challenging. I highly appreciate Mr. Sverre Alivik and his team for their work. Today, I would like to share some views and ideas on China's energy transition and China-Norway economic cooperation.

1. China has contributed greatly to the world’s energy transition.

I agree with DNV’s President Mr. Remi Ericsen and the OUTLOOK statement that China is already in a leading position in renewable energy investment. Currently, China's renewable energy installed capacity ranks first in the world. By 2050, the proportion of renewable energy in China’s power structure will increase from the current 30% to 88%. Meanwhile, China will help other countries to achieve their renewable energy targets. In 2023 alone, there was a 29.9% increase in China’s exports of electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar cells.

In terms of production capacity, China has built the world's largest, most complete, and most competitive green energy supply chains. The cost of wind power and photovoltaic power in China has further declined, and this has created more opportunities for developing countries to deploy renewable energy.

In the view of investment, China is the largest investor in energy transition around the globe. In 2022, China invested 546 billion USD, half of the global total.

From the perspective of emission reduction, in 2022, China's renewable energy power generation directly reduced carbon emissions by approximately 2.26 billion tons. Exported wind power and photovoltaic products have reduced carbon emissions by approximately 570 million tons for other countries. China contributes 41% to global carbon emission reductions. According to the OUTLOOK, China's share of global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will drop from the current 33% to 22% in 2050, this is three times the scale of Europe's decarbonization in the same period, and this again demonstrates China's significant contribution to global carbon emissions reduction.

During the UN COP-28, all parties highly recognized China’s concept of low-carbon transition and achievements of clean energy development. All believed that China has provided important, pragmatic, and feasible solutions for countries around the world to promote energy transition, economic development, and ecological environment.

2. The so-called proposition that “China’s overcapacity impacts the world market” is false.

Recently, the United States and some European Union members have been hyping up the so-called “China’s overcapacity” in electric vehicles and solar panels. In theory, production capacity should be analyzed in the context of the global division of labor and international markets. In a market-oriented economy, the imbalance between supply and demand is common. Moderate overcapacity is conducive to full competition and survival of the best. Therefore, overcapacity should not be measured by indicators such as a country's output in the global market or its export volume. It is the result of comparative advantages. For example, U.S. corn production accounts for 30% of the world's and a quarter of the whole world's exports. But no one talks about the U.S. overcapacity in corn production. In history, we have many such cases, like the German and Japanese car exports and French wine exports.

China's renewable energy industry advantages are shaped by its full market competition, technology advancement, market scale expansion, and complete industrial chain, not by government subsidies and unfair competition. "China's overcapacity impacts the world market" is a false proposition. We believe that taking trade protection measures on the grounds of "overcapacity" will only undermine the stability and smoothness of the production and supply chain, and this will hinder the green transition of the global economy and the development of emerging industries.

In this case, I agree more with Mr. Remi Ericsen and his DNV OUTLOOK report, that global technical cooperation and expertise sharing are urgently needed to deal with climate change. Decoupling, cutting off the supply chains and protectionism are not the solutions. we must work jointly to reach the goal of 1.5 degree Celsius warming limit. We know where we are going, but we are not clear on how to go. Norway has the design, technology, and money while China has the manufacturing and installation capacity. So, I have high expectations from Mr. Sverre Alivik and Ms. Chen today for their coming lectures. But back to reality, we are not short of good ideas, plans, or outlooks. We need action and cooperation, especially from European countries like Norway.

3. China and Norway need mutual trust and cooperation to cope with the challenges of global climate change.

Currently, the complex political and economic international situation calls for mutual trust and cooperation between China and Norway. In February, Norwegian Foreign Minister Mr. Eide paid a successful visit to China, reaching a series of important consensuses with China on cooperation. Norway firmly supports and upholds free trade, open cooperation, and WTO rules. So does China. We have broad space for cooperation in green transition and other fields and a strong will to jointly address global challenges. We agree to hold a series of activities to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations. We will strengthen our close high-level exchanges and visits, and deepen our practical cooperation in economy, trade, culture, science, technology, and so on.

This year, China and Norway will take real actions both in Beijing and Oslo, by kicking off the dialogue of bilateral green transition cooperation. The Chinese Embassy will hold a green transition seminar on May 23, to encourage governments, think tanks, and business enterprises to meet and talk. Around 100 energy and environment protection officials, researchers, and entrepreneurs from China and Norway are invited. Entrepreneurs present today are welcome to participate in this event. Hopefully, we will do something real to cope with the global climate change.

Wish this seminar a success.

Tusen takk!